Introduction: At 3 pm on May 12, China and the United States issued a joint statement of the Geneva economic and trade talks, announcing that the 125% tariffs imposed on both sides since April 2 would be reduced to 34%, and referring to the US's practices against other countries, 24% of the tariffs would be suspended for 90 days, and only the remaining 10% of tariffs would be imposed. At the same time, the two countries will establish a mechanism to continue to negotiate on economic and trade relations. The temporary easing of the tariff dispute has led to a better demand expectation for DOTP operators. In addition, the strong rise in raw material prices, coupled with the short-term shutdown of Shandong's large DOTP equipment and the decline in market supply, led to a strong rebound in DOTP prices . As of now, the reference price of DOTP in Zhejiang Province is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from Monday's price of 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.14%.
1. The transaction volume of raw material octanol improved and the price rose
of price trends of DOTP and its raw material octanol from 2024 to 2025 (yuan/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information
Since the Qingming Festival, the domestic octanol market price has continued to decline. On May 12, the ex-factory price in Shandong fell to 7050-7100 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of April. In April, market confidence was insufficient, and downstream users were not very enthusiastic about purchasing periodic high-priced raw materials. The inventory of the industrial chain continued to be at a low level to reduce risks. However, as the Sino-US tariff dispute eased, the confidence of the industry has been boosted. Due to concerns about the increase in terminal product export orders in the later period, the industry actively carried out inventory replenishment operations, which led to a rapid rebound in the center of gravity of the octanol market. On May 14, the ex-factory price in Shandong was 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.55% from the ex-factory price on May 12.
2. Raw material PTA continues to strengthen
Figure 2 PTA spot basis trend (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information
During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply, causing the PTA market to open slightly lower after the holiday, and then international oil prices began to rebound. Raw material prices are strong, PTA cost support is stable, and the supply and demand of PTA is tight. The balance sheet continues to destock, which also supports the market and drives up PTA market prices. Especially after May 12, with the release of the Sino-US joint statement in the Geneva economic and trade talks, trade disputes have eased, commodity sentiment has warmed up, and PTA price increases have expanded. As of today, the spot price of PTA market is 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 290 yuan/ton from the ex-factory price on May 12, an increase of 6.03%.
trade disputes, the transaction volume of DOTP raw materials octanol and PTA has improved, and prices have risen strongly. The cost side has given strong support to the DOTP market, which has played a significant role in the rebound of DOTP prices.
3. Declining production and reduced supply support the DOTP market
Figure 3 Comparison of DOTP daily capacity utilization trends from 2023 to 2025
Data source: Longzhong Information
Supported by cost and macroeconomic factors, the mentality of DOTP operators has improved, buyers are actively covering positions at low prices, and market transactions have increased significantly. At the same time, Shandong's large factories and large equipment began to shut down for maintenance as scheduled around May 12, and market supply was greatly reduced. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate dropped rapidly from 64% to 52%. The tight supply situation of Shandong's large factories has emerged, so the intention to support prices has increased. Cost benefits and reduced supply have accelerated the price increase of DOTP.
4. Trade disputes ease and demand expectations improve
Figure 4 Comparison of export volume of some downstream products of plasticizers to the United States as a percentage of total exports
Data source: Longzhong Information
After the tariff reduction between China and the United States, the tariff levels between China and the United States have dropped significantly by 91 percentage points. During the 90-day exemption period of reciprocal tariffs, the tariff rate imposed by the United States on China was reduced from 145% to 30%, including 20% fentanyl-related tariffs + 10% "reciprocal tariffs", while China's tariff rate on the United States was reduced from 125% to 10%. In addition, China and the United States are still negotiating on the 20% tariff related to fentanyl. In the short term, the demand for rushing exports and exporting production capacity is expected to boost China's exports. Since November last year, the "rush to export" has driven China's overall export performance to be strong. Considering the uncertainty of reciprocal tariffs after the 90-day "exemption period", the "rush to export" is expected to continue within the 90-day window period.
According to Chinese customs data, the top five categories of goods exported by China to the United States in 2024 are electrical and mechanical equipment and their parts and accessories, machinery and equipment and parts, furniture, toys and plastic products, etc., accounting for a total of 57.2%. DOTP downstream products include furniture, toys, plastic products, etc. In addition, the main downstream products of DOTP, such as PVC gloves, PVC floor coverings, PVC inflatable products, PVC boards and sheets, also account for a large proportion of its total exports to the United States.
The main production area of disposable PVC gloves is China, of which the production capacity in mainland China accounts for about 95%. More than 85-90% of the PVC gloves produced in China are exported to more than 40 countries and regions including the United States, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. Among them, the United States is the world's largest consumer market for disposable protective gloves. As trade disputes ease, orders for disposable protective gloves may flow back to China. At present, glove companies are cautiously optimistic and moderately reserve raw material DOTP.
PVC flooring products are also one of the products that the United States imports from China. According to the export data in 2024, PVC flooring products were exported to the United States at 1.4738 million tons, accounting for 31.12% of the total exports. There are many related companies in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places. After the recent joint statement was released, the industry is also full of confidence in the future market of flooring. Enterprises are more motivated to prepare raw materials, and the purchase volume of new DOTP orders has increased significantly.
In short, as an environmentally friendly plasticizer, DOTP accounts for a high proportion of exports in downstream products. Therefore, after the tariff dispute is eased, the export of plasticizer products to the United States has increased, and the plasticizer with the greatest impact is DOTP. Under the mutual influence of cost and downstream expected preferences, DOTP new orders are active and prices rebound strongly. Since China and the United States issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, the price of DOTP has increased by more than 7% in just three days.
Overall, DOTP still has favorable support on the cost side. Although the demand side is optimistic, the phased replenishment has gradually ended, and the high-price follow-up has become stagnant, limiting the upward momentum of DOTP prices. It is expected that the DOTP market price will temporarily remain strong in the near future, and as the transaction becomes weaker, the profit-taking intention to take orders is positive, and the high price may fall back.
