Introduction: Substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, which pushed down the tariffs between China and the United States compared with April. Although this move did not directly involve the trade of octanol products between China and the United States, it played a positive role in boosting the transmission of the octanol industry chain. With the expected recovery of terminal plastic soft product exports, downstream plasticizers and end users concentrated on replenishing their inventories, and the octanol market ended its downward trend since early April.
1. There will be no trade in octanol between China and the United States in 2025
Figure 1 China's octanol import trend (10,000 tons, US dollars/ton) Figure 2 China's octanol export trend (10,000 tons, US dollars/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information Data source: Longzhong Information
Since entering 2025, China's octanol import dependence has declined. From January to March, the cumulative import of octanol was 45,800 tons, a 46.93% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, the imports mainly came from Taiwan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. From January to March, China's octanol exports totaled 19,400 tons, an increase of 185% over the same period last year, mainly exported to the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Pakistan and other countries. There was no import and export trade of octanol between China and the United States in the first quarter.
Therefore, after the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, the impact on the octanol market is mainly reflected in the export orders of terminal plastic soft products such as toys, floor coverings, PVC gloves and other products.
2. Octanol market focus quickly reversed
Figure 3 Domestic Octanol Price Trend Chart (Yuan/Ton)
Since the Qingming Festival, the domestic octanol market price has continued to decline. On May 12, the ex-factory price in Shandong fell to 7050-7100 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of April. Although the market center of gravity rebounded during this period, due to insufficient market confidence, downstream users were not very enthusiastic about purchasing periodic high-priced raw materials. The market price of octanol fell rapidly after a short rise, and the inventory of the industrial chain continued to be at a low level to reduce risks. Yesterday, the market trading atmosphere improved significantly, mainly stimulated by the reduction of Sino-US tariffs, and the confidence of the industry was boosted. Due to concerns about the increase in export orders in the later period, the industry carried out inventory replenishment operations, which led to the rebound of the market center of gravity. On May 13, the ex-factory price in Shandong was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77% from yesterday's ex-factory price. Downstream plasticizer DOTP and DOP units started operation at medium load, and the price increase of plasticizer products exceeded that of octanol.
Table 1 Summary of domestic octanol and major downstream prices (unit: yuan/ton)
market | Specification | May 12 | May 13 | Rise and fall value | Rise and fall |
Shandong | Premium | 7075 | 7200 | +125 | +1.77% |
Jiangsu | Premium | 7225 | 7375 | +150 | +2.08% |
Key downstream |
DOP | Shandong | 7700 | 7950 | +250 | +3.25% |
DOTP | Zhejiang | 7700 | 8050 | +350 | +4.55% |
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3. Market Forecast
1. The industry chain is running at low inventory, and there will be short-term replenishment operations
From early April to early May, when the market price of octanol continued to decline, all products and raw material inventories in the industry chain maintained low inventory operations to reduce market risks. After the news of the progress made in the high-level talks between China and the United States and the reduction of tariffs on the afternoon of May 12, the market mentality has improved significantly. The downstream of the industry chain and end users began to replenish inventory.
2. Terminal export orders are expected to increase
After the tariff reduction between China and the United States, the export tariff of terminal soft products has dropped to 30%, an increase of 10% from before the Qingming Festival. In the short term, export orders have not increased. Some businesses expect the recovery of export orders in the later period. The increase in demand will lead to a tightening of raw material supply. Therefore, buyers purchase raw materials in advance before the recovery of export orders. Since the latest tariff has increased by 10% from before the Qingming Festival, some businesses believe that there is uncertainty in the recovery of export orders.
3. Profit margins of downstream plasticizers expand
Downstream plasticizers have seen a large increase in the past two days, with DOTP products increasing by 400 yuan/ton and DOP products increasing by 300 yuan/ton. The profit margins of the two plasticizer products have also improved significantly compared to last week, which will support the enthusiasm for the start-up of plasticizer plants.
After the reciprocal tariff reduction between China and the United States during the week, there is an expectation that terminal soft product export orders will increase, the confidence in the market has been significantly boosted, and the new orders in the downstream plasticizer market have improved significantly. The recovery of terminal orders is not clear at present. Downstream users will have a wave of concentrated inventory replenishment in the short term, and there is an expectation of upward recovery in medium and long-term demand. It is expected that the short-term market of octanol will continue to fluctuate strongly, and the actual recovery of terminal exports in the medium and long term still needs to be paid attention to.
