Introduction: The joint statement of the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released on the 12th. The easing of tariff disputes is beneficial to the mentality of DOP market merchants, the market transaction volume has increased, and the DOP price has risen strongly. The price is rapidly approaching the level in early April, rising by 500 yuan/ton in three working days, driving up the profit level.
Changes in mentality stimulate buying, and DOP market prices rebound strongly
DOP market price change table
Unit: Yuan/ton
| product | 3-Apr | 8-Apr | 9-May | 12-May | 14-May |
| Jiangsu DOP | 8350 | 8150 | 7750 | 7850 | 8250 |
| Shandong Octanol | 7800 | 7600 | 7100 | 7075 | 7300 |
Data source:
In early April, the Sino-US tariff relations were tense, the mentality of market merchants was impacted, end-user orders were insufficient, there was insufficient good news in the market, supply pressure increased, and domestic market prices continued to decline, from 8,350 yuan/ton to 7,750 yuan/ton after May 1, a drop of 600 yuan/ton.
However, this week, the market returned to the market. The Joint Statement of the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks was released on the 12th. The tariff dispute eased, and the market merchants shifted their focus to the recovery of end-user orders, which effectively benefited the market merchants' mentality. The market price rebounded upward, traders covered their short positions and end-users replenished their stocks. The trading atmosphere was hot, which promoted the strong rebound of DOP market prices. As of May 14, within three working days, the market price rose by 500 yuan/ton, and the price in Jiangsu market rose to 8,250 yuan/ton, and the price quickly returned to the level before the tariff dispute.
DOP's growth rate exceeds that of the raw material market, and the profit level recovers rapidly
Figure 1 Domestic DOP profit trend in 2025 (unit: tons)
Data source:
The increase in transaction volume in the DOP market supported its purchasing sentiment for octanol supplies, driving up the price of octanol. Another raw material, phthalic anhydride, also saw a price rebound driven by concentrated replenishment. Therefore, the cost price of the DOP market rose. Calculated based on the current prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride, the cost price of DOP in Jiangsu market on May 14 was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The cost increase was smaller than the price increase, and the market profit margin turned from loss to profit. The market profit level recovered to 218 yuan/ton, ending a one-month loss-making operation.
DOP market demand recovery remains the key
From the supply side, the rapid price recovery has driven up profits, which is good for DOP factory production. At the current stage, the market supply is still relatively abundant. After the concentrated replenishment in the market, the process of discharging goods and reducing inventory may be accelerated, which is beneficial for the short-term inventory reduction.
From the perspective of the raw material market, the raw material octanol market is still supported by buying demand, and prices are expected to rise. After the concentrated buying in the phthalic anhydride market, prices are running steadily, and the DOP cost is still slightly moving up.
From the perspective of demand and mentality, at the beginning of the tariff reduction, there has been no direct improvement in the foreign trade orders of end users, and it will still take time to complete new orders. However, some industry players are optimistic about the end users' later orders and resumption of work, so the recovery of demand is still a focus of wait-and-see.
At the beginning of the week, the positive news of the Sino-US tariff dispute stimulated the market buying sentiment, so the improvement of the upward mentality and the covering of short positions were the main reasons for the price increase. However, the price increase was too fast, and the digestion speed of end users had not yet followed up, resulting in difficulty in following up on high-priced market buying transactions. Once again, high-level buying was blocked. The market needed time to digest the supply, so the short-term market price operation shifted from buying support to raw material pull. Supported by this cost, the DOP market price in the short term temporarily maintained a high level. We still need to wait and see the demand of end users in the future, and there is no shortage of concessions in shipments again.
