Published: 2025-08-02 11:41 Source: Editor: Cao Mingming
Introduction: The domestic TOTM market price continues to run weakly, mainly due to the heavy impact of falling raw materials, the continuous weakening of cost support, and the lack of improvement in the downstream, resulting in TOTM prices continuing to fall, constantly refreshing the low point of the year.
1. TOTM market fluctuates and continues to decline
Figure 1 Domestic TOTM price trend in East China (yuan/ton)
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As of August 1st, the reference price of TOTM in East China was 11,900-12,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan, or 4%, from July 4th. The domestic TOTM market continued to fluctuate downward, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Reportedly, the downstream market is recovering slowly, and demand remains rigid, prompting cautious trading. Furthermore, due to the significant decline in the price of raw material TMA, a bearish sentiment prevailed, resulting in low inquiries and transactions. Consequently, both cost and demand support for TOTM have weakened, and market prices have continued to decline, reaching new lows for the year.
Table 1 Summary of TOTM and raw material prices (unit: yuan/ton)
product | market | July 4th | August 1 | Rise and Fall Value | Rise and fall |
TOTM | East China | 12500 | 12000 | -500 | -4.00% |
Key upstream |
TMA | East China | 18000 | 16000 | -2000 | -11.11% |
Octanol | Shandong | 7460 | 7550 | +90 | +1.21% |
Data source:
2. Raw materials fall in TOTM costs and support decline
Figure 2 Comparison of domestic TOTM costs and profits (yuan/ton)
Data source:
As of August 1, the cost of TOTM was around 11,376 yuan/ton, down 761 yuan/ton from July 4, a drop of 6.27%. As the raw material TMA units have been gradually restored, the operating load has continued to increase, and the supply has increased, but the overall performance of the downstream is general, and they are cautious about their inquiries and purchasing intentions. Small orders are purchased on demand, and the overall market trading is light. TMA factories are making concessions and shipments, and prices are constantly falling, but the effect is poor, and the overall boost is limited. For this reason, the TMA market price has fluctuated and fallen sharply, and TOTM has been affected by it, and its price has followed suit slightly. Because the decline in TOTM prices is smaller than the decline in raw material prices, TOTM profits have rebounded to around 624 yuan/ton, up 261 yuan/ton from August 1, an increase of 71.9%.
Table 2 Summary of TOTM cost-profit trends (unit: yuan/ton)
product | market | July 4th | August 2 | Rise and Fall Value | Rise and fall |
cost | East China | 12137 | 11376 | -761 | -6.27% |
profit | Shandong | 363 | 624 | +261 | +71.90% |
Data source:
3. Market Forecast
Cost: Demand for raw material TMA is recovering slowly, leading to a volatile market and consolidation, with a potential for a narrow decline . In the octanol market , significant downstream cost pressures and a strong bearish sentiment have led to potential for price fluctuations and declines. Therefore, TOTM costs are expected to continue to decline in the future.
Supply side: The TOTM unit's operating load is stable, and coupled with poor shipments in the early stage, factory inventories are medium to high, so the market supply is sufficient.
Demand side: Downstream demand is mainly based on buying on dips, and market participants are cautious in trading.
On the whole, the domestic TOTM market has sufficient supply, while downstream operators are cautious and demand remains rigid. Therefore, the oversupply situation continues. In addition, there is still room for raw materials to fall. Therefore, whether it is demand or cost, the support for the TOTM market is still weak. The market is more bearish in the later period. It is expected that the TOTM market price will still have room to fall, but the decline will be small, and the trend will remain mainly volatile and slowly downward.
